After months of hype and excitement, the assembly elections of five states of India are finally over and the winners have been confirmed. The results of the Assembly elections in five states, including Kerala, reaffirm the power of democracy, the necessity of political consciousness and the threat posed by apolitical thinking.

In Kerala, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) continues to rule with a large majority and they form a government again. The Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress is coming to power for the third time in Bengal. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK has come to power with a large majority, overthrowing the AIADMK which has been in power twice since 2011. In Puducherry, the BJP alliance with the AINRC (All India Namathu Rajiyam Congress), which split from the Congress, has regained power in Puducherry. In Assam, the BJP led NDA has won a clear majority and is in power.

Fading Saffron

The biggest reflection of this election was the setback for the BJP, the ruling party at the Centre. The election results send a message that the BJP, which has ruled the country since 2014, is weakening after seven years. The Indian elections had initially reflected the drastic increase in the momentum gained by the BJP and Sangh Parivar forces since Narendra Modi came to power in 2014. It was Modi’s influence that enabled the BJP to make an entry even in Kerala in the 2016 elections.

In Assam, where the Congress had won with a brutal majority, the BJP has been on the rise since 2016. The BJP tried to go ahead with the 2016 elections in Bengal by highlighting Modi’s influence, but failed there. Modi’s influence could not reach Bengal as they have been unable to jump over the Great Wall which has been raised by Mamata Banerjee. It deprived the BJP of the opportunity to grow. But even though the BJP has won 77 seats in this election, it cannot be seen as a political victory for the BJP. The BJP is facing a major setback but they are still exploring the possibility of a strong comeback.

Sangh Parivar and Kerala

This time in Kerala, when the competition was fierce and both the fronts were confident, the concern of the minorities and the secular community was about the alarming Sangh Parivar movement. In 2016, under the influence of Modi, when O. Rajagopal achieved an unexpected victory in the constituency of Nemom, the BJP centers presented it as a sign of the future growth of the BJP in Kerala. They boasted that they would win up to 35 seats this time and if so, they would be able to rule Kerala. Various media polls have suggested that the BJP will win five or six seats. Manjeswaram, Thrissur, Palakkad, Konni, Kazhakoottam and Nemom constituencies became prominent in the media.

The secular parties and secularists in Kerala, who knew that the BJP’s growth in secular Kerala would be reflected all over India, were terrified of the entry of the Sangh Parivar. The election result calls for these fears to be eliminated. In 2016 they won with a majority of 8671 votes in the constituency of Nemom but with their star campaigner Kummanam Rajasekharan they lost that seat as well by 4,000 votes in this election. The ‘Metroman’ E Sreedharan presented by the BJP as the much hyped Chief Ministerial candidate lost to Shafi Parambil, a young man of the Palakkad Congress, by around 4,000 votes. In Manjeshwar, the BJP state president K Surendran lost by just 89 votes in 2016, this time despite his extravagant election rallies with choppers flying in out each constituency, he managed to achieve the same loss this time to Youth League leader AKM Ashraf by around 600 votes. Shobha Surendran could not sustain the progress made by V. Muraleedharan earlier in Kazhakoottam. The Shobha side accuses the Muraleedharan side of purposefully making her lose. Thrissur and Konni were destined to remain in the third position this time as well. Their worries are heightened by the fact that even after bringing in star-studded candidates in 2021 compared to 2016, they managed to get only 0.7% more votes. This defeat has been a great disappointment to the BJP in Kerala as they have been cleanly swept away from the Legislative Assembly.

A setback for anti-Muslim politics

The election is a setback for all politicians who thought they could capitalize on anti-Muslim politics and propoganda. PC George, who has been a consistent winner in Poonjar, faced the election this time thinking that he could unite the Hindu-Christian votes and win through religious and communal polarization. PC George, who had contested in Poonjar in 2016 without the help of any party, had a majority of 27,821. But when he came out with an anti-Muslim communal card unfamiliar to the Malayalis, PC had to lose by 17,000 votes.

Like PC George, Jose K. Mani was a candidate who came forward with allegations of ‘love jihad’. Jose K Mani was accused of trying to make himself the ‘Godfather’ of Christians and hence brought up such unsubstantiated issues. The response of the voters in Pala to Jose K Mani, who came to the scene with the stale, old and unproven “Love Jihad” allegation (which has been rejected by the courts as well) was impressive. Jose Mani lost to Mani C Kappan by 15,000 votes.

Bengal Assembly Elections

The Trinamool Congress has returned to power with two-thirds majority in the Bengal elections. Mamata Banerjee,has become the undisputed leader of all male leaders in Bengal despite her own defeat in her constituency. Mamata has given great strength to the party and its workers. Bengal, once ruled by the CPM, is now in Mamata’s hands. After the time of Jyoti Basu, the CPM was weakened halfway through the regime of Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee. The CPM’s decline began in 2006 when it won 176 seats, down to just 40 in 2011. The Mamata-led Trinamool Congress has been winning by a landslide since 2011. In 2011, the CPM won 40 seats, while in 2016 it had to settle for just 26 seats.

Now all the Left parties, including the CPM, are in a state of disarray. But when the CPM went down, the BJP won 77 seats and became the main opposition. One must wonder how BJP managed to win so much seats. The Trinamool Congress won as many seats this time as it did in 2016. It has won 213 seats as against 211 in 2016. Therefore Congress and the CPI(M) have to answer this. No further inquiry is needed into where the 44 seats won by the Congress in the last election and the 36 seats won by the Left parties went this time. The answer is that the BJP, which had only 3 seats, won 77 seats this time.

There was an Indian National Congress in Bengal even during the time of Jyoti Basu. But due to organizational weakness (which is something Congress is suffering from in many states including Kerala), the Congress could not stand upright. Mamata Banerjee is advancing by having a strong political presence in the state. They succeeded in preventing the possible growth of the BJP in Bengal when the CPM was weak. They were able to grow a ‘Congress Party’ in Bengal, which has strong leftist roots, by taking the lead in taking up issues and preventing communalism. While the Congress is collapsing in other states, the Sangh Parivar is growing there. This is where Mamata’s willpower and popular face come into play.

It should be noted that Mamata Banerjee was with the NDA for a few years from 1999 under Vajpayee. But today she is at odds with the BJP, reacting strongly against Narendra Modi and fearlessly opposing the Sangh Parivar and the BJP.

The Dravida Nadu

The BJP has been trying to gain a foothold in Tamil Nadu politics for a long time. Although the party has been contesting since its inception in 1980, they have not been able to make any significant gains as communalism has not grown in the soil where the Dravidian tradition is upheld. They made their Tamil Nadu debut in 1996 when the BJP won a seat with the support of the AIADMK (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam). But it was not until 2001 that they entered a front. It was a mistake made by Karunanidhi while clashing with AIDAMK.

In the 2001 assembly elections, the BJP, forming a political front with DMK won four seats. The then Chief Minister Jayalalitha’s declaration of support for the Uniform Civil Code, the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya and the move to bring in a law prohibiting conversion had raised great concerns among the Muslim and Christian minorities and dalits. Recognizing this, Karunanidhi resigned from the NDA, alleging that Jayalalitha was abusing the Prohibition of Terrorism Act (PTA) and that the BJP was complicit in it. With that move, the BJP was wiped out from the Tamil Nadu Assembly.

Despite contesting a total of 234 seats in the 2016 Modi-influenced elections, the BJP failed to make it to the Tamil Nadu Assembly. But by 2021, the BJP has changed its electoral policy in Tamil Nadu. In Tamil Nadu, the NDA was formed and the BJP, led by AIADMK, joined it. They contested in 20 seats and have now won 4 seats. AIADMK has paved the way for a party that could have otherwise never have managed to get into the Tamil Nadu Assembly. Thus four Lotuses blooms in Tamil Nadu.

The popular actor Kamal Haasan had launched his own party MNM (Makkal Needhi Maiam). The election campaign for the 2021 Legislative Assembly election of MNM had candidates running in 142 constituencies and he had said that he would not form an alliance with either DMK or AIADMK. However MNM failed to win a seat in the election, with Haasan himself losing to BJP’s Vanathi Srinivasan in the Coimbatore South assembly constituency.

Now with the MK Stalin led DMK coming to power with a two – thirds majority in the Tamil Nadu elections winning 159 seats, the rise of the BJP and the NDA has diminished. But if the secular parties in Tamil Nadu do not take seriously the fact that the Sangh Parivar forces are plotting to increase the number of seats from four to forty, there is no doubt that Tamil Nadu will be a saffron state in the future.

It is comforting to know that MK Stalin, a political leader who has followed in the footsteps of  C.N. Annadurai, Karunanidhi and Mohammad Ismail Sahib and upheld the secular excellence of Dravidian politics, has given direction to the Tamil politics. This is what is disturbing the sleep of the Sangh Parivar forces.

BJP in Assam again

The northeastern state of Assam had nothing to do with communalism or communal parties. The BJP was only represented in one or two seats by name, sometimes winning or losing. The regional structure of Assam was not conducive to the growth of the BJP. Instead of moving with the Hindutva agenda, they entered the arena as protectors of the indigenous tribes of Assam.

In the 2011 elections, the BJP won only 5 seats. However, the AIUDF (All India United Democratic Front), formed in 2005 under the leadership of Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, won 18 seats in the 2011 elections. By using this as part of BJP’s campaign, the BJP spread widespread fear in the Hindu community. They campaigned that the AIUDF was being nurtured by the Congress. At the same time, they raised fears about Muslims in Hindu communities, citing issues related to immigration from Bangladesh. By doing so they instilled fear and division among the Muslims and Hindus.

The BJP has been in Assam since 1980 but did not have a strong leadership. But with the joining of Congress leader Himanta Biswa Sarma and the Assam Gana Parishad leader Sarbananda Sonowal into the BJP, the BJP took a lead. After Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister in 2014, the central government intensified the immigration problems in Assam and tried to influence the masses by again bringing up communal issues.

The Congress, which has been in power for a long time, instead of facing such problems, had become drowned in corruption and nepotism. People were fed up with Congress leader and three-time Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. Gogoi’s move to bring his own son Gaurav Gogoi to power drew widespread criticism. Similar criticisms were leveled at many Congress leaders in Assam. This was reflected in the 2016 election. Many of the leaders relatives lost the election, including the daughter of state APCC president Anjan Dutta, the son of minister Bhumidar Barman, the husband of Rajya Sabha MP Rani Nara and the mother of Lok Sabha MP Sushmita Dev.

The BJP formed a front comprising the Assam Gana Parishad and the Bodoland People’s Front. The Congress and the AIUDF contested alone without a front. The BJP alone won 60 seats. The Front won a total of 86 seats. Congress was reduced to 26. The AIUDF won 13 seats.

Anyone who reads history can understand how Assam, which was not at all familiar to the BJP, came under the control of the BJP. The BJP’s rise in Assam convinces us that secular parties are not yet ready to study this history. The BJP retained all its 60 seats in this election and won a total of 75 seats. The Congress, AIUDF, BPF and CPM together won 50 seats. Congress needs credible leadership and dynamic activists. If so, it will not be difficult to recapture Assam. What Assam needs is strong-willed leadership, as seen in Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

Saffronizing Puducherry

The state of Puducherry, formerly known as Pondicherry, is a scattered Union Territory. The state of Puducherry is made up of Mahe in North Kerala, Yanam in Andhra Pradesh, Karaikal in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Puducherry is an area ruled alternately by the Congress, DMK and AIDMK. These were peaceful areas where the BJP could not even dream of coming into power as it was place which embraced Dravidian culture and Congress politics. But today, Puducherry has become a BJP-sharing state.

Following a disagreement over the post of Chief Minister in Puducherry in 2011, prominent Congress leader N.K. Rangaswamy left the Congress. The party he later formed was the AINRC (All India Namathu Rajiyam Congress). In the 2011 elections, Rangaswamy’s party shocked the Congress by forming a coalition with the AIADMK to win 20 seats in the 30 – member assembly and Rangaswamy becoming the Chief Minister. The opposition front was the Congress and the DMK. But after Narendra Modi came to power, the BJP contested all the 30 seats in the 2016 elections. Rangaswamy could not win enough seats. The Congress-DMK front came to power. Taking this opportunity, the BJP formed a political front with Rangaswamy. Namathu Rajyam Congress (NRC) thus became a constituent party of the NDA.

In the current elections in 2021, the BJP has contested 9 seats and won 6 of them. With Rangaswamy’s party winning 10 seats, their front gained an absolute majority. Puducherry is now ruled by the NDA. The UPA and the Independents, comprising the Congress and the DMK, were reduced to 14. With the BJP ruling Puducherry, it should be seen as the Sangh Parivar’s entry into Dravidian politics. It can be observed that this will strengthen the influence in Tamil Nadu, which won four seats this time. This points to the fact that differences within the Congress party allow the BJP to enter states where it has no influence.

Continuity of governance in Kerala

In Kerala, this time the people gave their consent by continuing the rule of the Left Front. The United Front (Congress-CPI-League), which came to power in 1970, had a history of winning twice consecutively in the elections as they won in 1977 as well. Ever since then Kerala was ruled by successive fronts alternatively. This has however now changed after more than 45 years as the LDF has been elected for the second time in a row. The rivalry between the UDF and the LDF has played a major role in keeping Kerala secular. This political situation has played a significant role in keeping the majority and minority communal organizations and anti-national movements at bay. Therefore the role played by these two fronts in the inability of BJP for saffronzing Kerala cannot be overlooked. The LDF continues to rule with 99 seats. In 2001, UDF led by AK Antony won 99 seats. This is the first time since then that a government has come to power with such a large majority.

The political future of Kerala

Although the LDF came to power with a large majority in the state elections and ousted the Sangh Parivar, there is another result that worries the state. That is the downfall of the Congress party. The fact that the Congress was reduced to just 21 seats and that in some districts there was not even a single Congress representative by name is a danger. BJP has made it clear that their primary objective is to destroy the Congress. This is because their politics thrives in Congress-free areas. It should be remembered that the BJP is the new opposition in Bengal, where the CPM is absent.

Even anti-Congress political centres believe that the survival of the Congress is much needed. The reason for this is that the BJP will try to sow seeds where the Congress is doomed. The fact is that Congress would have been wiped out had it not been for the contributions of other parties they have alliances with such as the Indian Union Muslim League. Secular parties, no matter what politics they represent, must survive. The secularism of the country is protected in the balancing of the competition between them. The Congress leadership needs to understand this.

The reason for the demise of the Congress in various states of the country is due to infighting within the Congress. Various Congress parties have split and formed new parties. With the NCP (Nationalist Congress Party), Trinamool Congress, YSR (Yuvajana Sramika Rythu) Congress, AINRC and many other organizations, the Congress today has become fragmented in different states. Although the Congress is one in Kerala, the Congress leaders agree that it is within itself different groups. The Congress leadership needs to think seriously. The party can only survive if it focuses on correcting mistakes and bringing back it’s stability and power through compromises.

Being wary of the Sangh Parivar

The Sangh Parivar is like a predator looking for its prey. The victims have returned without being found, but they are still being looked for. They are looking at where there is a lack of leadership and where there are stray sheep to attack. In Assam, they used the same tactic. It should not happen in our Kerala. There can be no communal polarization in Kerala and we should be continue to be known for the religious harmony, peace and tranquility that we enjoy. We all have a responsibility to maintain the political and cultural identity of Kerala or else few years down the lane Kerala could become saffronized.

-Translated by Raihan Bin Abdul Shaheed

Sufyan Abdussalam